All my predictions have come true. So here is my next prediction: In 6 to 9 month this crisis will be under control and life can resume as it was before. I predict that the life can go back to normal before there is a vaccine that is available to the masses.
This prediction is based on the preliminary data that has come out of multiple countries. Small Antibody testing studies have shown the the spread of the virus is much father than assumed or around 20%. None of these studies of course are representative and the margin of error if extrapolated to the entire population is unknown. However, these numbers make total sense when looking at how contagious this virus already has been and how fast the incubation period is. This percentage is also on par with an article by a harvard scientist and another article by a maker german scientist from very early this year. Both articles predicted a worldwide spread of 60 to 80 percent to the worlds population within 1 to 2 years. If the data holds up or is even revise upwards then it makes only sense that herd immunity will be achieved within 6 to 9 months to an extend that the the remaining and continuing covid19 infections are no different in terms of hospital capacity than other communicable disease. Of course people will still get infected and people are at risk of dying. But the our system can handle the numbers without overloading.
At the same time there will be continued improvements in treatment and response. As of today there are many improvements in the treatment already such as putting people on ventilators while resting on the stomach or using surviver plasma as treatment.
As to the question of herd immunity: There is debate as to how much immunity a surviver has. For me the questions is partially answered by the successful treatment of surviver plasma. The antibodies are working. How long and how well they work remains to be seen. Therefore, survivors have antibodies that prevent reinfection to a certain degree.
Finally, there are many thousands of mutations of the virus already. This is potential negative game changer that could derail this prediction.
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