Until there is a treatment, which can take the edge of the symptoms to the extent that the healthcare system can handle the numbers of infected needing intensive care.
If you are asking this question most likely you have not come to grips with the reality of the situation. There are only a few possible scenarios. There is a lot of available data from countries fighting the crisis early. Until there is a treatment or a vaccine or many, many more ICU units there is no going-back-to-normal. We are on the brink of collapsing the healthcare system’s capacities. Case and point: Northern Italy. There are not enough ICUs for all patients. So who gets to chose which patient to give complete treatment to? ( at this point i would like to express my tremendous respect for our healthcare-workers and everyone involved in that process. Thank you so much for what you doing.) The consequences of collapse or possible conflict are so dire I would rather not discuss them. So the only chance is to play for time. ( or flatten the curve…) Many weeks ago a Harvard university scientist predicted that 60%+ of the world population will get infected within years. Therefore, stopping the virus is not really an option.
I just talked to a chinese engineer who is going back to china after two months of internationally quarantining himself and his extended family. He simply said: “China is now the safest country”. He may be right. Why are they safer than the rest of us? They have understood the virus and know what works to contain it. Now they are now back to the NEW normal. The new normal has nothing to do with the old normal. For that reason ” how long do wee need to isolate? ” is the wrong question. It’s like saying how long do I need to diet? Can i go back to eating bad after two weeks. Yes, but you won’t be any better off.
This means we are playing for time. Time for what? A) more hospital beds in the short run, yes. Maybe that would lead to more people being immune after being healed. We don’t know how long one stays immune after being healed. B) a vaccine. the consensus is that a vaccine available to the masses is a very long time away. There are may scientist working on it and human tests have started. The question is how effective would it be and how safe would it be. Would there be sever side-effects and limited efficacy? Potentially, it would not be a just take the vaccine and we are fine situation. Would it cover mutations of the virus. There are already two versions of this virus.C) A treatment that keeps infected of the ventilators and ICU’s and in-turn form dying. This is the fastest possible option in my opinion. However, a treatment must be discovered first.
Bottom line: Unless we find a cure/ treatment fast the new normal is nothing like the old normal. Economically we are not in a crisis yet. The economic crisis is man made. It will be a result of our reaction to the situation and our lack of preparing over the last few decades. What we know today is that 80%-99% of humanity will medically survive this virus. These people need to eat, consume and live life. There is a horizontal shift coming in the economy and not a financial vertical shift. Meaning, many business from the old normal will not be feasible in the new normal, But also many new businesses will emerge.
Suggestions: Help the weak of our society including the workers living paycheck to paycheck. The ones that will lose their income temporarily. The government could hire them to build and to man new hospitals, protective gear and medical device factories or train then to help the weak and elderly by delivering necessities and food. The middle class could be helped easily by a no questions asked refinancing of their mortgages to near 0% interest guaranteed by the government. This would allow them to take out equity to bridge this time of change….
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