Sadly, all my predictions about the effects of the crisis during the last two months have come through. China and asia were the first to live through this. Europe was next and now America is trailing by about a month. I have shared my predictions about the economy and effects of the virus with friends and family in Europe and the usa. Subsequently, they were able to prepare for what is happening now and what is about to come when no one else was panicking yet.
Most local information has an agenda. For example the shortage of facemarks leads to a false narrative that facemark don’t provide protection. While it is true that Hospitals and first responders need access to protective gear the most, it is false to say that facemarks don’t work. Fast masks do not provide 100% protection. However, they provide an extra layer of protection. Very similar to condom use. Condoms also are not 100% protective but no sane person would advocate that only porn-stars should wear them. In countries like asian countries where everyone wears a facemark the level of protection is much higher because automatically people who are contagious are wearing a mask as well and the spread thereby is minimized. The consensus is that people can be contagious before showing symptoms. So if you wear a mask to protect yourself but you are already infected you will then in effects reduce the spread to other people including loved ones and family. ( there are two main categories relevant to this: Sugical masks and N95 compliant masks. The later are the ones also stopping the fin dust particles 2.5. I was fortunate to have stocked uo on the N95 type due to bad air quality last year. Information obout the difference is readily available on the internet.)
The reality is that our global resources are very limited. ( this is due to the shift to just-in-time-inventory in order to maximize profits) If everyone in the United States or Europe was to wears a mask today then there wouldn’t be enough left for health workers. So the response should be healthworkkers first then everyone else not “don’t wear a mask”. Also and maybe more importantly production should be increased substantially. It is not hard to make these masks and other resources. So far there is little talk and even less action about drastically increasing resources such as masks, had sanitizers, ventilators, icu units and immediate training of additional medical personal. This is the biggest mistake we are making. Too little too late.
The solution to this crisis is an effective treatment that at the minimum reduces the effects of the virus so that the currently estimated 20% of affected people do not need intensive care. This is our best hope. There are some promising treatments all around the world in the testing phase. The reality is no-one knows when such a treatment will be available. Even more important no-one knows IF such a treatment will ever be available. Until such a treatment is not only discovered, validated and ready but also available for the hundreds of millions that would want it worldwide, until such time our only option is to slow down the spread to mach out inadequate medical resources.
Vaccines are literally a pipe dream. the word is that a vaccine would be available in no less then a year and half. This is only half way true. What is not talked about is that such a vaccine must first be discover. The year and a half availability tolls from the day of discovery. TODATE no such vaccine has been discovered. Think about other viruses like Ebola, SARS, MERS or HIV. The same year and half timeline would apply to them from the point of discovery of a vaccine. Yes, with all the research we have not found any vaccine for these viruses in all these years. This idea that if we throw enough money at a medical problem we will find a cure is utter scientific stupidity. SO the timeline of a vaccine is completely irrelevant until it has actually been discovered. A year and a half from never is still never.
As far as my Past predictions go. Take a look at China, Korea and Japan and compare them to Europe. The measures taken in China can not be replicated in other parts of the world. Simply because the cultures will not allow it. Compounding is the sense of individual freedom, which would prohibit strict authoritarian measure to be implemented in Europe and the USA. A quick example is CASH. China is all but a cashless society. Most payments for the smallest of purchases to the biggest are handled via touches mobile apps like ALIPAY. There is also a big service industry that delivers food and the like. The combination of the two has enable China’s citizens to be isolated and limit the spread during essential transactions like food deliveries or shopping. Cash is major suspect in transmission. Chines delivery drivers were able to deliver food without any proximity to the customer. Some of the receipts would display the current body temperatures of the delivery driver as well as the food prepare. While not a perfect system. It most certainly reduced the spread. Neither Europe nor the USA is setup and ready for such a measure. Therefore somethings that worked in China and Japan will not not work elsewhere. The bottom line is that answers for European and American citizens can be found in the countries that are ahead of the curve as far as the timeline is concerned.
The takeaway should be the use of common sense. Evaluate information given by officials in light to their underlying agenda to see if they fit the common sense test. Don’t waste another day without preparing for what is still to come. That goes for countries as well as individuals. The good news is that this is a very slow moving threat that affords us enough time to react to it in order to minimize the negative effects. The economic effect has a two to four months delay. The effects created in January will be felt starting now. Even with a cure today the economic effects would manifest itself for months to come. Think of it as a slow moving freighter. If you stop the engines now the ship will continue for quite while until it stops. Be prepared.
As always please take care of the elderly, weak and less fortunate in your community. We are all in this together and we are only as strong as our weakest link. In the next blog I will address promising developments about the slowdown of the spread of the virus due to higher temperatures and UV exposure on the example of country with hot and sunny weather.
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